It comes down to this one terribly unsexy truth:The weasels that win over the next three to five years
will be the ones that play to the past, not the future.
The writing is on the wall everywhere– even if no one particularly wants to read
it. The top touring acts? Bon Jovi and U2. The top-selling albums of last year? Lady
Antebellum, Susan Boyle, Sade, Michael Buble... all aimed at the adult demographic.
Even Eminem and Alicia Keys are not exactly new faces. The reason people are bidding to
buy Warner Bros. is not for their new stars (there aren’t many) but for their catalog.
The same is true of Warner Chappell and EMI Publishing. Their value is in the classic
songs, not in their current market share. Across Europe, it’s not only the Germans
who are profitably investing in revitalizing or re-packaging their older superstar acts.
In Italy, for example, the charts continue to be dominated by
names like Eros Ramazzotti and Vasco Rossi. Given the predominately
aging populations of most of the major European countries,
this trend won’t change anytime soon. In America, Rihanna has
had an unprecedented string of #1 hits, and still can’t manage to
mount a successful tour, while acts like Roger Waters
pack arenas, without having had a hit record in
more than a decade.
For music publishers, the older catalogs are far
more profitable than chasing current hits. It’s the
classics that show up on American Idol; the classics that get made
into jukebox musicals like “Jersey Boys,” “Mama Mia,” or “Rock of Ages”; the classics
that will bring the worldwide money with the advent of mobile music and video. As
for me, I’m giving up my spot at Mercury Lounge or Rockwood and checking out
whoever’s playing at Foxwoods casino. If you’re in the record
or music publishing business and you’re looking for safe ground, put your money on heritage acts.
Old acts singing old songs to old people may not be the future of the music business,
but it sure looks like the here and now. The generation that created lasting superstar
acts like Bon Jovi and U2 is one that continues to support live music and
buy CDs. Until something better comes along, that’s what keeps us all in business.